Risk methodology
Akashi combines the risks of an opportunity's protocol, asset and strategy into a score, then assigns a grade from A to E. A lower score means lower modelled risk within the supported catalogue.
Start with the reasons shown beside the grade. For example, two opportunities with similar rates can depend on different assets, upgrade authorities or liquidation rules. The grade helps you identify questions to investigate. It does not answer whether your money will be repaid.
The score is not a probability of loss. A score of 20 does not mean a 20% chance of losing money. The assessment is Akashi's model-based opinion, not a licensed credit rating. Read limitations before using it to compare investments.
The rest of this page describes engine v2's calculation, assumptions and update process.
1. Three pillars
Each rated opportunity receives a 0–100 score in each of three areas:
- Protocol: the venue holding the deposit. How long it has run, its incident history, whether its program is upgradeable and by whom (the model checks the upgrade authority on-chain and treats an off-curve PDA as a multisig and an on-curve key as a single signer), and disclosed treasury or insurance backing.
- Asset: the stablecoin itself. What backs it, market capitalisation, on-chain liquidity, how far it has drifted from $1 (including the worst break in the last 180 days), and whether a freeze or mint authority still exists.
- Strategy: what the position actually does. Plain lending, a leveraged loop, a yield-token derivative, an LP position, a vault delegating to a manager. Leverage, liquidation thresholds and pool depth all land here.
An off-curve authority is a modelling heuristic, not proof of a multisig’s members, threshold or governance quality.
2. Weights depend on the strategy
The model weights these areas differently by category. Strategy mechanics receive more weight in a leveraged position. Asset backing receives more in a yield-bearing stablecoin. Each row below sums to 100%:
| Category | Protocol | Asset | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lending and simple vaults | 45 % | 25 % | 30 % |
| Managed / looping vault | 25 % | 15 % | 60 % |
| Insurance fund | 50 % | 15 % | 35 % |
| Yield-bearing stablecoin | 25 % | 55 % | 20 % |
| Fixed yield / principal tokens (PT) and earn products | 30 % | 25 % | 45 % |
| Multiply (leveraged) | 30 % | 20 % | 50 % |
| Liquidity pool (LP) | 35 % | 40 % | 25 % |
| Anything else (default) | 35 % | 35 % | 30 % |
3. How the pillars combine
- Sub-factors inside a pillar are combined with a weighted power mean (exponent 1.5) rather than a plain average, so one extreme problem is not diluted by several benign factors.
- A weakest-link floor then applies: the composite can never fall more than 15 points below the worst pillar. A high-scoring area therefore keeps a minimum influence on the final result.
- A constant chain floor of 5 reflects the Solana-level risk every position shares. It is a floor, not a discriminator: nobody scores 0.
- An opportunity built on top of another protocol inherits that protocol's risk into its own Protocol pillar. Composability is not free.
4. Live incidents override the model
Live-incident signals can make the assessment more cautious before the next scheduled update:
- An active depeg on the underlying stablecoin sets the Asset pillar to 100.
- A TVL drop over 40% in 24 hours sets the Strategy pillar to 100. This is a risk signal. The drop alone does not establish its cause.
- An opportunity placed under review by an operator is floored at 70 (grade D or worse) until it is cleared.
Depeg detection is driven by an external stablecoin-ratings feed that refreshes four times an hour, and a risk recompute is chased immediately after it, with operational delays depending on source and service availability. This cadence is not a guaranteed alert deadline.
5. Score to grade
| Grade | Model score |
|---|---|
| A | 0–22 |
| B | 23–35 |
| C | 36–50 |
| D | 51–70 |
| E | 71–100 |
A is the lower-risk end of this model's scale. E is the higher-risk end. These categories do not describe an expected loss amount.
For example, if the worst pillar scores 80, the weakest-link rule keeps the composite at 65 or above, even if the weighted combination would otherwise be lower. A score of 65 falls in D. Other rules can increase it further.
Every grade ships with its reasons in plain language on the opportunity page. If a grade cannot be explained, treat that as a bug and tell us.
6. Recompute and history
Scores and grades are recomputed hourly, and again immediately after any live-incident signal. The grade record stores the current assessment rather than a full grade history. Rate and TVL history is retained separately. Do not treat those charts as a historical record of the grade.
7. Version history
- v2 (current): numeric 0–100 score and A–E grade over the three weighted pillars, with the live-incident layer.
- v1 (superseded): a coarse Low / Medium / High tier taking the worst of the three pillars, with no numeric score. It is not the grade displayed by the current interface.